In the process of global economic slowdown, the prediction of the use of recycled fibers has become a new research topic. "Recycled Fibers and World Markets - 2002 Edition" was published by the EU Advisory Committee. In 2000-2005, the annual global demand growth was 4.1%, which was lower than the 5.8% average annual growth rate in 1990-2000.
The slowdown in demand will particularly impact North America, where investment in renewables is currently at a very low level. Demand for recycled fibre will continue to fall in mid-2001. The gap between recycling and utilization in North America will widen and the remaining surplus will increase.
In Western Europe, the investment activity of the recycled fiber project is quite strong, while the extent of expansion in Japan is slightly weaker, but competition between these regions and the US exporter of recycled fiber in the world market will intensify. In Europe, the current known investment project will create 8 million tons of additional recycled fiber demand.
As an importer, Southern Europe will reduce imports due to improved waste paper collection, and Italy will even become a self-sufficient region for fiber recycling in 2005. These increase pressure on exports to Western Europe. In Japan, according to fiber demand, a large number of old production lines have been closed, new investment projects have been used for reclaimed fiber plants, and a net increase in demand for recycled fiber is about 600,000 tons based on new investment plants.
It is China that has dominated the high-level investment in the Asia-Pacific region, where it has announced that it will increase its regenerated fiber production capacity by 5.4 million tons during the period 2000-2005. Therefore, China will have more than double the deficit of recycled fiber in five years. The largest increase in the use of recycled fiber will remain at the packaging level, and further investment in the deinking capacity of newsprint and magazines will not lag behind.
The concentrated investment in the region to increase the production capacity of recycled paper and paperboard will have an important impact on pure fiber (such as cattle card and newsprint) in the world trade model. The recycling and use of waste paper grades without wood pulp will continue to lag, and it will not be conducive to the development of high quality.