The collapse of the family business, the problem is still in productivity
In recent years, many well-known furniture manufacturers have closed down, so everyone began to talk about the reasons for their closure: due to the downturn in the real estate industry, a certain category has gone downhill in the market, such as panel furniture, which is dragged down by self-operated stores; The profit rate is too low; the business is not good; the salary cost is too high.....
There are many so-called experts, blamed: the demographic dividend has disappeared, the economy has developed to a certain extent, and the growth has naturally slowed down. Therefore, some enterprises that cannot adapt to the trend will be eliminated.
Let me express my views on the opinions of the experts.
Usually people are discussing the prospects of industrial production everywhere, almost regardless of the industry, they only focus on the advantages of the population, the so-called demographic dividend.
Therefore, according to the statistics of the World Bank: China's total population in 2013 was 1.357 billion people, while in Asia, India, the population has reached 1.257 billion people, and the total population of ten countries in Southeast Asia has more than 600 million people.
China's population has an average growth rate of 0.5%, while India is growing at a rate three times that of China. Southeast Asia, with the exception of individual countries, is growing faster than China.
On the other hand, China is entering a period of rapid development of population aging, while the population of India and Southeast Asia is young, with an average age of under 30.
Therefore, the experts will make a judgment: I think that India, for a while, Southeast Asia, will grow faster than China in the future economic development.
Some scholars in China believe that China can replace workers with intelligent equipment and even industrial robots.
Many people in Europe, Japan, and especially the United States believe that intelligent equipment and industrial robots can recapture traditional manufacturing.
However, for many years, although these slogans are very loud, there are not many traditional manufacturing industries returning to developed countries. The reason is that the use of intelligent equipment, industrial robots, etc. is a means. The purpose of such means is This is the key to increasing productivity.
We often hear the slogan of intelligent production, etc., but we rarely hear the call to improve productivity. This is not the same as the Chinese habit. The Chinese have always been more practical, pay more attention to purpose, focus on results, and pay little attention to The process, but in this matter, is very different.
Therefore, I suspect that these slogans are only at the level of intellectuals such as experts and scholars. They are directly quoted from the West. They have not digested the means into a goal. If entrepreneurs look at this matter, the slogan should be "improving productivity." As productivity increases, companies can survive, and it is possible to make money without being eliminated.
Improving productivity is very important for companies, and for countries, we compare Japan with China:
During the period from 1956 to 1970, Japan’s per capita income was around 7,000 US dollars, and its economic growth rate remained at an average of 9.7%.
On the contrary, look at China, we have just reached a per capita income of 7,000 US dollars, but the economic growth rate is only 7%, why?
According to the analysis of the Bank of Japan:
In 1960-1973, Japan’s labor supply grew by more than 3% annually;
Since 2012, the working-age population in China has begun to decline, dropping more than 3 million people each year.
It is still analyzed by demographic dividend. In fact, during this period, Japan’s productivity growth was 10% per year, and such high productivity was the main reason for their high economic growth rate.
China's current annual productivity growth, but can not keep 3%, and even negative growth in recent years, can only rely on the investment of funds to promote economic growth, last year can only maintain 7% growth, and may be lower in the future.
The problem is still in productivity.
Therefore, some people think that the economic development will reach a certain level, and GDP growth will naturally slow down. This is true. However, we still can't reach the "degree", we are still far from the so-called "a certain degree".
There is a theory called Convergence Hypothesis, which believes that the per capita income of developing countries will reach 60% of the per capita income of the United States in 2005, and economic development will slow down. Asian four little dragons: Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, and even Japan, it seems to be the case.
However, China’s per capita income today is still less than 20% of the average American income in 2005, and the economy has begun to slow down.
Now the problem seems to be clearer, and our economy can develop at a higher level, as long as we increase productivity.
There is a way of calculating: If China wants to maintain a 9% growth rate by 2025, the annual growth rate of productivity (TFP) needs to be between 4.3 and 4.8%, but in the past 30 years, we have only 4%. It is now down year after year, so 9% growth cannot be achieved.
That is the level of the country. In our furniture industry, productivity should be improved faster, because the advanced countries have already walked the path, and they are living in front of us. We only need to learn and imitate, such as Japan, their per capita annual output value. It is about 1 million yuan, which is 4-5 times of ours. As long as we narrow this gap, it will double the productivity. Then we can produce more furniture with fewer people and be more competitive in the international market. The company's productivity has increased, profits have increased, how can it fail?
However, Productivity is an attitude. In addition to updating equipment, changing production processes, etc., how to make employees' potential work and make employees change their attitude towards work is the key (human resources). Management is to discuss these).
The furniture industry is a traditional manufacturing industry and may not be so valued by the government. However, the furniture industry has raised tens of millions of Chinese people and exported as much as US$50 billion. Therefore, China’s transformation and upgrading cannot be at the expense of giving up the advantages of traditional manufacturing. .
In the past, the United Kingdom and the United States have undergone transformation and upgrading, and have gone to service industries such as banking and finance. Germany's transformation and upgrading has moved to a single mechanical equipment industry. We should transform such a large number of traditional manufacturing industries with smart manufacturing and green manufacturing.
Because at this stage, we have a very low per capita income. To reach 60% of the US per capita income in 2005, it is still far and far, at least 40-50 years.
For more information on China's furniture industry, please pay attention to the official website of Xianghe Furniture City ().
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